by Matthew Hill
It seems like every year fantasy gamers get collectively sharper. Articles, podcasts, the availability of data, and precise ADP’s has made it increasingly difficult for anyone to gain an advantage over any other fantasy gamer. One of the few edges that still exist are early drafts.
Drafting prior to the NFL Draft for best ball leagues that will not begin until the league kicks off in September takes a confidence that not every owner possesses. Early drafters need to be able to look into the upcoming months and develop theories on how free agency, the draft, and preseason battles will shape depth charts and touch shares. It is not an exact science, for sure. However, it is possible to make quality educated guesses about which players are undervalued based on potential roles.
When targeting players in early best ball, I tend to look for players that fit certain criteria—
-Free agents set up for a big payday and with that, a feature role in their new team’s offense
-Rookie running backs expected to be selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft, especially those who excel as receivers and/or have reputations as strong pass blockers
-Players likely to have a clear pathway to more touches/greater efficiency next season, including retirement of veteran competition, new coaches, expected improvements along the offensive line or quarterback upgrade
-Second-half surge that went largely overlooked
What follows is a very wide-receiver heavy list of my favorite early best ball targets. While there are plenty of running back situations that look good on paper, the 2025 rookie running back class is expected to do a number on running back depth charts. I am more likely to spend up on running backs early, targeting players with clear, locked-in roles, versus filling my roster with players who currently offer value but who have a tenuous hold on their team’s depth chart.
Fortunately for owners who hammer running back early and often, there are several wide receivers whose ADP’s are mispriced and seem destined to adjust over the course of the offseason. Those four wide receivers will be amongst my most rostered players while their ADP’s are suppressed, along with three tight ends whose ADP’s don’t properly reflect their potential ceilings. In addition to those six players, I identify a pair of running backs who are risky, due to a combination of deep and talented free agent and NFL Draft classes, but who offer tantalizing upside at a bargain-basement cost. Each player incudes their current best ball positional ADP.
Running Back
Aaron Jones (RB28)
Aaron Jones finished as the RB14 last season, producing 1546 total yards with seven touchdowns. Jones has surpassed 46 receptions every year since 2019, with the exception of the 2023 season where he missed seven games. Aaron Jones headlines a talented free agent class and should have no trouble securing a new contract as a lead back in a committee, with passing-down work. His RB28 ADP is his floor.
Jerome Ford (RB44)
Cleveland’s salary cap situation is a mess. They go into the offseason $31,000,000 over the cap. Nick Chubb is expected to leave via free agency, which means Jerome Ford should find himself as the Browns starting running back after the free agent dust clears. Cleveland will almost certainly use one or more of their twelve picks to add to their running back room, so Ford’s hold as starting running back is tenuous. However, at RB44, he is worth selecting late as a high-floor, value option, that could very well enter the season as Cleveland’s lead back as they wait for a rookie to earn a role.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin(WR35)
Chris Godwin was fantasy’s #2 overall wide receiver after seven weeks. A gruesome ankle injury ended his season in Week 8 and may be playing into his suppressed early ADP. At WR35, Godwin’s value is simply too good to pass up. As soon as the talented free agent signs a contract, expect a sizable ADP bump. Then, with every positive offseason rehab report, his ADP will continue to rise.
Jalen McMillan (WR43)
Chris Godwin’s injury gave talented rookieJalen McMillan an expansive role. He was able to take advantage of the opportunity by being one of the league’s hottest receivers down the stretch. From weeks 14-17, McMillan posted low-end WR1 numbers, finishing as the PPR WR12 for that stretch. With another offseason, Godwin’s potential departure, and Mike Evans turning 32 this summer, McMillan could very well be the most mispriced player of early best ball.
Khalil Shakir (WR49)
Khalil Shakir was one of 2024’s most identified breakout candidates. While he did not ultimately put up elite numbers, he did post career-best numbers across the board, including nearly doubling his previous years’ reception totals (39 receptions in 2023 to 76 last season), pacing the Bills in receptions and receiving yards (821). Shakir’s offseason began with him signing a four-year extension, paying him in excess of 60 million dollars. Shakir enters his age 25 season entrenched as the Buffalo’s #1 wide receiver and is a massive value as the WR49 in early best ball.
Marvin Mims (WR55)
Marvin Mims’ sophomore jump was largely overlooked, as evident by his early WR55 ADP, but Mims saw his production spike from a receiving line of 22/377/1 in 2023 to 39/503/6 last season. Mims was the WR29 from Weeks 11-17 as the second-year player took on an expanded role, one that is expected to continue in 2025, making him a target at his WR55 ADP.
Tight End
Cade Otton(TE19)
Cade Otton was the TE6 through the first fourteen weeks of the season, and it is like no one cares. Otton will be 26 next season, playing for a Tampa Bay team that might be without Chris Godwin, and has seen his receptions and yardage totals increase each of his three years in the league. Otton is a screaming value at TE19.
Kyle Pitts (TE18)
Alright, I get it—the guy is frustrating. Every year he gets drafted with the expectation that he will be a locked-in, every-week, TE1…and every year he fails to meet those expectations. However, the pendulum now seems to have swung in the opposite direction, with his ADP placing him as a low-end, TE2. This is too low. Pitts was the TE14 last season, and while his boom-bust nature drove traditional fantasy gamers crazy, he was still valuable in best ball, thanks to his seven, double-digit “spike weeks,” including a 25-point, Week 8 effort. Draft Pitts at his TE18 ADP and enjoy the spike weeks…and potentially his age 24 breakout season.
Noah Gray (TE25)
While Gray’s true potential season will not be known until Travis Kelce makes his decision about whether he will be returning for another season, Gray was already becoming more involved in the Chiefs offense in 2024, seeing two or more targets in 13 games. If Kelce opts to return, Gray should see enough spike weeks to return value as a third tight end in three tight end builds. If Kelce does call it a career, look for Gray’s ADP to climb steadily this offseason.
